The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

The author, Peter Zeihan (born January 18, 1973) presents the thesis that the world is in the early stages of a transition from a US-led global economy to de-globalization. Global trade integrated the world via a highly specialized division of labor. Zeihan notes that this was possible because of the security the US provided for global transport and thriving consumer markets. In an era of collapsing demographics, should the US withdraw its protection of trade routes, such an integrated global economy would become unsustainable. De-globalization would disrupt all sectors, with the most devastating impact on agriculture and food supplies. The author predicts food shortages in many parts of the world and resulting political fallout.

Analyzing how geographic and demographic challenges would structure the distribution of wealth and power in a de-globalized future, Zeihan focuses on transport, finance, energy, industrial inputs, manufacturing, and agriculture. Although he is making predictions about the future, he bases them on current demographics, conditions, and market analyses. For example, he provides data on where industrial inputs are sourced and processed in 2022 and then extrapolates their future distribution. Zeihan highlights the consequences of de-globalization, noting that they would be dire for many countries, but softens that pessimism with humor throughout the work.