In the Likely Event

In February of 2020, the Trump Administration entered into the US-Taliban Deal. This deal imposed fighting restrictions that would result in the withdrawal of NATO forces and a commitment to counter-terrorism on the part of the Taliban. The Trump Administration immediately began reducing the number of American forces and decreasing the frequency of air raids in Afghanistan, thereby removing critical support to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). This action, combined with the Biden Administration’s subsequent decision to remove all American troops without leaving a residual force, ultimately triggered the collapse of the ANSF.

In the novel, Yarros uses the actual events of August 2021, specifically the fall of Kabul on August 15, as the setting of her novel. Beginning on May 1, 2021, the Taliban began an offensive that allowed them to take control of provinces throughout Afghanistan. This offensive took place as American troops continued to withdraw, with only 650 remaining in Afghanistan by August. Their intent was to protect the US Embassy and Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul. US intelligence sources believed that Kabul would remain secure in the hands of the Afghans until the complete withdrawal of American troops at the end of August. However, this judgment proved to be inaccurate. On August 12, 2021, with hundreds of US diplomatic, security, and counter-terrorism personnel still on the ground, as well as Afghan translators and Afghan evacuees, the Biden Administration deployed 3,000 troops to the Kabul airport to slow the approach of Taliban forces, followed by an increase of 2,000 troops on August 14. Another 2,000 troops arrived on August 15 and 16, bringing the total of additional troops to 7,000. The last of the American military planes left Afghanistan by midnight on August 30, 2021. Unfortunately, approximately 1,000 US citizens and Afghan evacuees were left behind due to visa issues. The Taliban took control of the airport immediately after the departure of American troops and declared victory.